Research Overview

Over the previous decade, the Indian economy registered robust economic growth resulting in lower poverty rates, strong consumption growth, and a sizeable middle class. Putting behind the economic fallout from slowing economic conditions and the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 and 2020, the Indian economy appears to gradually reclaim its express growth trajectory with an average 8.5% growth forecast over 2021-22. Amid adverse external conditions, will rapid digitalization, a revamped foreign trade policy, manufacturing support, and infrastructure boost help sustain high economic growth beyond 2022? Or will geopolitical complexities and jobless growth undermine India’s consumption and investment growth over the medium-term? Which new sectors and industries will emerge as the harbingers of growth, driven by policy impetus and shifting socio-economic factors?

This economic piece weaves pivotal policy initiatives, demographic transformation, socio-economic shifts, and a changing global landscape into India’s 2030 growth story. It provides insights into the economy’s future growth potential, inflation risks, monetary policy movements, labor market transformation, and trade policy objectives until 2030. It further highlights internal and external challenges inimical to sustained economic performance including high external fuel dependence, rising external debt, and climate change. By focusing on policy priority areas, this research pins down areas poised for rapid innovation and growth for businesses such as green energy and manufacturing. This economic piece further identifies growth opportunities emanating from a confluence of demographic, social and economic trends including a burgeoning luxury goods market, thriving real estate, and growing healthcare.