Research Overview

Over the previous decade, the Indian economy registered robust economic growth resulting in lower poverty rates, strong consumption growth, and a sizeable middle class. Putting behind the economic fallout from slowing economic conditions and the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 and 2020 respectively, the Indian economy is gradually returning to a sustained growth trajectory with 8.2% growth forecast over 2021-22. As external headwinds to economic growth mount, will rapid digitalization, a revamped foreign trade policy, manufacturing support, and infrastructure boost help sustain high economic growth beyond 2022? Or will geopolitical complexities and jobless growth undermine India’s consumption and investment growth over the medium-term? Which new sectors and industries will emerge as the harbingers of growth, driven by policy impetus and shifting socio-economic factors?

This economic piece weaves pivotal policy initiatives, demographic transformation, socio-economic shifts, and a changing global landscape into India’s 2030 growth story. It provides insights into the economy’s future growth potential, inflation risks, monetary policy movements, labor market transformation, and trade policy objectives until 2030. It further highlights internal and external challenges inimical to sustained economic performance including high external fuel dependence, rising external debt, and climate change.

A key feature of this piece is the analysis of policy priorities to identify industries poised for rapid innovation and growth. By providing a comprehensive overview of policy incentives and targets, this research provides insights into investment opportunities across green energy, manufacturing, digitalization, infrastructure, and logistics. Besides policy priorities, insights into India’s socio-demographic transition including population composition, urbanization, consumption pattern, and the future of work including a growing gig economy are highlighted. This research piece further identifies high growth sectors including growth in affordable real estate, luxury market trade, healthcare, and tourism based on a confluence of demographic, social, and economic transition over the next eight years.