Research Overview

With the framing of stringent emission norms and strong regulatory push, the automotive industry is fully prepared to shift toward electric powertrains. Although automakers have been investing in various alternative powertrain technologies to achieve low/zero emission, Electric Vehicles (EV) look promising for OEMs. They and battery manufacturers are preparing themselves to meet the expected demand boom in the next decade. Unlike passenger vehicles, commercial vehicle owners look for cost per mile and want the trucks to be commercially viable, rather than having a comfortable driving experience. With falling battery prices, electric trucks are expected to be viable and a fantastic fit in certain applications, including last-mile delivery and regional haul, beyond 2023.

Battery is the most expensive commodity in electric trucks at present. As the demand for batteries increases, prices are expected to fall below $100 per KWh by 2030. Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) chemistries is expected to be widely used in commercial vehicles across all segments, due to higher energy density and power. Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) is the second-most popular battery chemistry due to safety and lower costs. The increase in battery production capacity and heavy competition among battery manufacturers is driving the battery ecosystem to offer cost-competitive prices with increased utilization. Solid-state batteries offer better value proposition with improved safety, longer life cycles, higher energy density, and improved thermal stability. The technological advancements in solid-state batteries will make it best suitable for electric trucks in the long term.

Asian manufacturers have been on top of the lithium-ion battery supply to the EV industry. China held more than 70% of the total EV battery market in 2020. Major suppliers, including CATL, BYD, LG Chem, Samsung, and SK Innovation, have already ramped up production capacities and have huge targets for the coming years in terms of installed capacities. These suppliers have signed supply contracts with key electric truck manufacturers in the world to help them reach sales targets in order to comply with stringent emission standards. Europe is turning out to be the most attractive production destination because it is already home to many EV manufacturers. CATL and Tesla have announced plans to expand their production facilities in Europe.