Research Overview

The Middle East and Africa (MEA) defense spending forecast for 2021–2030 will undergo a period of instability and high levels of tension due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic and national instability in the region. Major points of interest that could have an impact on geopolitical relations and a cascading effect on the wider defense industry, specifically supply chains and competition, include US policy in the region to enhance support and strategic cooperation with leading GCC countries; Chinese and Russian military and diplomatic aggression for better defense positioning, including in Africa; Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the JCPOA negotiations; the Abraham Accords and its impact on Israel’s relations with GCC countries and Morocco; and political instability in Africa.

Changing operational environments drive defense requirements and procurement—from unmanned platforms (UAM) to digitalization of IT defense infrastructure and modernization of armored vehicle programs. War is no longer fought only on the battlefield against a known adversary but is increasingly against non-state actors and guerrilla-style tactics. Warfare will see a shift toward urban-centric operations in the Middle East and Africa region.

This research service breaks down the defense spending of 10 leading countries in the Middle East and Africa by air, land, naval domains, and C4ISR and training and simulation (T&S) service procurement. The study analyzes trends and drivers in these markets, the current major programs, and the competitive environment in each domain and country. It also briefly discusses major technological areas and their respective impact on the defense industry, defense investment climate, and offset policy. Regional outlook detailing opportunities and on-going procurements is also provided.